The Battle.
To win all without fighting, nations must first decide which nations they want to expand their sphere of influence. An examination of the conflicts during the 20th century present excellent illustrations for analysis. The First and Second World Wars, wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan illustrate the high cost of ill-conceived strategies employed by nations attempting to expand their sphere of influence.
Another example was the cessation of the Cold War because of President Reagan’s strategy to use ‘investment’ to stop communism from dominating the world. Reagan won without fighting, as Sun Tzu counselled. Nations with command economies like the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic were unable to “keep the financial pace” and collapsed as western liberalized democracy prevailed because they could out-spend the Soviets (or pretend to spend).
Comment.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is a very effective tool to win all without fighting.
Developed countries frequently use FDI to align recipient nations with their national policy interest. Consider Canada’s economic independence with the United States- certainly influencing Canada’s national policies and sovereignty.
Zbigniew Brezinski observes, “One must consider the global web of specialized organizations as part of the American system, especially the international financial institutions.” The international monetary fund (IMF) and the World Bank mandate initially represented the global interest, and their constituency was construed as the world. In reality, however, these institutions are heavily American-dominated, and their origins are traceable to the Bretton Woods conference of 1944. We discussed this briefly in the post: “Stealth and the Element of Surprise- the Underlying Reasons for Emerging Trade Blocks.” (Link)
Some suggest that North African nations fare poorly in obtaining their share of global FDI because they are of little geopolitical and strategic importance. There are, of course, other reasons that we will review in future posts. Again from the Middle Kingdom, Tzu observes: “the greatest conqueror is he who overcomes the enemy without a blow.” Keep this proverb in mind when we look at FDI and its part in supporting national interests and the global economy.
President Xi Jinping has adopted Tzu’s advice, it seems, with the One Belt Road and the other initiative- The String of Pearls. Both have been introduced in another post referred to above.
