The bedtime story of the boiling frog can be instructive. You may recall the story of Kermit being placed in a pot of boiling water and, as expected, immediately jumps out, hopefully landing on suitable terrain.
However, if the same Kermit is put in the pot of water at room temperature which is then heated incrementally, regretfully Kermit will adjust to the changing environment and remain blissfully in the pot until such time as frogs legs are served for dinner. Ribbit!
The metaphor of course is that often in our workplace, like Kermit, we accept incremental change without complaint.
We contentedly ignore the activities around us. This is not a good place for business, nor frogs, to remain for long.
As strategists it is absolutely critical, no matter how comfortable the water, that we constantly stay alert for change in our ecosystem. At the earliest opportunity we detect flame under our pot has been increased we must react. But a better posture than reacting is to anticipate change. Don’t wait for the flame to be detected – start crafting your strategies to accommodate what you anticipate is going to happen. Indeed the best posture is to lead change. Drive your industry – make others follow.
A Strategist’s Perspective – 15 videos – contains a number of these concepts presented in a fun way to enhance a firm’s bottom line.
Your task as your firm’s strategist is to look out in front, scanning the ecosystem for icebergs emerging through the fog. You must mitigate the damage or exploit the opportunity these complex and discontinuous changes present. You must adopt new mental models.
I described that turbulent ecosystem in one of my books about 20 years ago as ‘the quickening’. Historically, strategists placed significant weight on historical data and took for granted small changes in statistics such as demographics describing the baby boom. Today, while this data is important, the reality is you cannot craft strategy relying on the rear-view mirror. Planning linear extensions to your forecasts no longer work – indeed they are dangerous. The world is shifting much too quickly.
What are the forces shaping your industry? IoE, globalization, terrorism, financial markets, new competitors from the BRIC nations- have you ‘sat on a stump’ and identified these drivers? This is absolutely critical in order to craft a strategy to accommodate change in turbulent ecosystems.
I am reminded of a great line from a popular BBC television show called ‘Yes Minister’. In the scene the Prime Minister is wrestling with his Deputy Minister to obtain information that the Deputy Minister does not want to share. After numerous verbal go rounds the Deputy Minister facetiously asks the Prime Minister what is it specifically he needs to know.
The Prime Minister frustrated and sputtering responds with words to the effect,… “I don’t know, what I don’t know, because I don’t know, what I don’t know”.
As a manager, increasingly your challenge will be to fill this void. What is it that you don’t know, and of course like the Minister you need to know what it is you don’t know. Confusing– you betcha!
As a strategist you must grow beyond your conceptual, experiential and cognitive skills to learn what are the questions you should be asking- what is it you don’t know?.
