Let there be no mistake – there is a gathering storm. As of 1 October there have been 600 sorties ordered against Taiwan.
The article below is the most recent incursion that included 12 H6 nuclear capable bombers and 36 fighter jets.
It was not simply an exercise for China to show the flag but rather, as military people reading this post will recognize, these incursions are deliberate ‘prodding’ exercises against specific targets. Taiwan scrambled their aging aircraft fleet thereby revealing the number of planes, the direction, and the capabilities of the Defence Force. All the data would be analysed for deficiencies and weak points.
President Xi is determined, in my opinion, to replace Mao Tse Tung as China’s quintessential leader. He, like Mao following the long March in 1949, is consolidating power. All-important decision-making bodies report directly to Xi’s office. Such an incident, as reported below, could not take place without his office authorizing.
During the third Cultural Revolution 1966 Mao Zedong issued a little red book. (LINK mao little red book 1968 – Bing images) It was mandatory for group discussions as the reference for debates and discussions. It was enforced by the People’s Liberation Army – the local military authorities. Dissidents were removed. Consider, there is some evidence these actions continue: “China has detained more than one million Uyghurs against their will over the past few years in a large network of what the state calls “re-education camps”, and sentenced hundreds of thousands to prison terms.
As an aside I have three little original red books in my office. One in Russian, one for senior members of the Communist Party, and a plainer version for the Chinese people. (LINK Who are the Uyghurs and why is China being accused of genocide? – BBC News). 04/10-21 The party printed over 1 billion copies between 1964 and 1971.
I have made the point of the importance of strategists maintaining a list of issues/trends that keep them up at night. Trends that, if they were to unfold, will present opportunities to be exploited, or require actions to mitigate or reduce the damage to our nation, organizations and family.
The atrophy of the relationship between China and the USA as they compete for universal hegemony is on my list. I’ll post more the thoughts shortly… look forward to the discussion…no wrong or right answers…
In any event, if you have the time, here is the article…
China sends 56 jets into Taiwan defense zone in another record incursion
By AMBER WANG, Agence France Presse
Published October 5, 2021 4:47am
The Taiwan defense ministry said it scrambled aircraft to broadcast warnings after 36 fighter jets, 12 H-6 nuclear-capable bombers and four other planes entered its southwest air defense identification zone (ADIZ).
Taiwan urged Beijing to stop “irresponsible provocative actions” after 56 Chinese warplanes crossed into its air defense zone on Monday in yet another record incursion.
The Taiwan defense ministry said it scrambled aircraft to broadcast warnings after 36 fighter jets, 12 H-6 nuclear-capable bombers and four other planes entered its southwest air defense identification zone (ADIZ).
Four more fighters entered the zone in a night sortie, bringing the total to 56 planes, the ministry added.
The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC), Taiwan’s top China policy-making body, accused Beijing of “seriously damaging the status quo of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait” with its recent string of incursions.
“We demand the Beijing authorities immediately stop its non-peaceful and irresponsible provocative actions,” MAC spokesman Chiu Chui-cheng said in a statement.
“China is the culprit for causing tensions between the two sides of the (Taiwan) Strait and it has further threatened regional security and order,” he added, saying Taiwan “will never compromise and yield” to threats.
The ADIZ is not the same as Taiwan’s territorial airspace but includes a far greater area that overlaps with part of China’s own air defense identification zone and even includes some of the mainland.
Self-ruled democratic Taiwan lives under the constant threat of invasion by China, which views the island as its territory and has vowed to one day seize it, by force if necessary.
In the last two years, Beijing has begun sending large sorties into Taiwan’s defense zone to signal dissatisfaction at key moments — and to keep Taipei’s ageing fighter fleet regularly stressed.
Nearly 150 Chinese warplanes had breached Taiwan’s ADIZ since Friday when Beijing marked its National Day with its then-biggest aerial show of force, buzzing the island with 38 planes.
That was followed by another incursion by 39 planes on Saturday, sparking criticism from Washington.
State Department spokesman Ned Price reiterated Monday that the United States was “very concerned” by the “provocative” moves by Beijing.
“This activity is destabilizing, it risks miscalculation and it undermines regional peace and security,” Price told reporters.
“We strongly urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan,” he said, calling US commitment to the island “rock-solid”.
Ramping up pressure
China’s foreign ministry on Monday accused Washington of sending out “an extremely wrong and irresponsible signal” with “provocative” actions such as selling arms to Taipei and sending its warships to the Taiwan Strait.
“The US should correct its mistakes, earnestly abide by the ‘one China Principle’… prudently and appropriately handle the Taiwan issue, stop bolstering ‘Taiwanese independence’ separatist forces,” said spokeswoman Hua Chunying.
Beijing has ramped up pressure on Taiwan since the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen, who rejects its stance that Taiwan is part of “one China”.
Under President Xi Jinping, Chinese warplanes are crossing into Taiwan’s ADIZ at an unprecedented rate.
Last year, a record 380 Chinese military jets made incursions into Taiwan’s defence zone, and the number this year as of early October has already exceeded 600.
Last week, 24 Chinese warplanes flew into the zone after Taiwan applied to join a major trans-Pacific trade pact, a move Beijing has opposed.
Friday’s show of force came the same week China accused Britain of “evil attentions” after it sent a frigate to sail through the Taiwan Strait, which Beijing claims as its own waterway.
Xi has described Taiwan becoming part of the mainland as “inevitable”.
US military officials have begun to talk openly about fears that China could consider the previously unthinkable and invade.
Monday’s incursion “was a way for Beijing to tell Washington that it will not submit to US warnings, that it, not Washington, sets the rules in this part of the world,” said J. Michael Cole, a Taipei-based analyst at the University of Nottingham’s Taiwan Studies Program. — Agence France-Presse
Source China sends 56 jets into Taiwan defense zone in another record incursion | GMA News Online (gmanetwork.com) 04/10-21
Influence is affected by leverage – geographic, economic, political, military, all underpinned by collective force of will.
China has the clear geographical and political advantage, the will might be tempered by the negative economic impact aggression will surely create. However, Xi’s recent takedown of the capitalistic appetite of some of its largest economic engines bodes poorly for Taiwan and the West. It signals that China may seriously consider ignoring the threat of the West’s anticipated severe threat of sanctions against the acquisition of territory and further economic leverage.
I doubt there is a long game to be played here, a Chinese takeover of Taiwan would not likely be handled with the relative delicacy of Hong Kong. The levers are strongly in China’s favor as Western dependency on Chinese products and, yes, it’s emerging technologies, are backing us into a corner.
Adaptation on two economic fronts can stay the impact, 1) concerted outsourcing for non technical goods via a broader international coalition of suppliers and 2) incentivizing domestic production via subsidies tied to output, rather than the grotesque tax abatements and breaks of recent years that do nothing substantive to stimulate domestic economic growth.
Taiwan’s sovereignty is a foregone loss, the levers all lean heavily in China’s favor, and the will of the West is simply not strong enough to take on the costs of intervention. The best hope is a silk glove approach by the Chinese in the face of a broad international condemnation, however, increasingly nationalistic tendencies worldwide make such a coalition far less likely than were in place in the 20th century.
Dave thank you for the comment.. No wrong or right answers on this blog site.. All are encouraged to challenge respectfully and express their opinions.
In this case I fully support what you said.
I have been reflecting on this matter as you have outlined during last few days; And I have come up with a thought that I believe is worthy of the directing minds regarding China and Taiwan. It’s interesting that the political pundits are silent on this situation —- gives one a sense that the issue is getting short shrift from the military intelligence.. And by extension the American Administration Executive Branch.
I propose to make this the subject of my next “what’s in the news” video later this week.
Certainly China is an emerging trend They can impact our collective well-being and our business strategies– Need to understand the Middle Kingdom and prepare accordingly.
So here it is: I’m confident that China ,Iran, North Korea…Are evaluating the actions that have played out by the stakeholders. Russia after months of getting ‘in position’ has made the first play on the grand chessboard.
The second move is that of the defensive team… Doing with what they have–And perilously short of everything…The Ukrainian forces are holding on until relieved… And there’s a question where is ‘the Relief’.. ‘The Supports’??
And there it is —a common theme. Weakness that will result in Greek tragedy without supports…
Those in the intelligent community were provided almost 6 months of ‘breadcrumbs’ … With little critical thinking and analysis it would laid bare Pres. Putin Plan. He telegraphed his pending actions.
Having studied the Soviet tactics in the 60s during the Cold War were the basic Russian model was shocking and awe/blitzkrieg/everything up in the shop window and attacked line of breast. But from what I can discern from the news in the evenings.. Sixty years later it was Putin’s Army first move– to intimidate etc.. Didn’t work this time–Did work for Hitler.
As aside week or so ago I think I saw a T 54 Tank with two 45 gallon drums on the back for fuel. It indicated to me the supply lines were not dependable and The heavy motorized military equipment tanks and artillery would have to carry what they could or sit ‘dry’ until the supply chain caught up with leading forces. They have been moving forward at a crawl– I suspect supply chain management is part of the issue. To some extent that proved true as reports the tanks it ran out of fuel were attractive targets for the Ukraine Army with antitank missiles or Molotov cocktails.
So the warning was clear— but there was a failure by the Biden Administration to champion the cause… Rather.. Watched —- Dithered… Became very “reactive” as opposed to adopting an anticipatory and/or proactive Strategy (s). In any business a reactive strategy is not place you want to stay for long.
The EU.. NATO… USA… And others were afforded plenty of opportunity to move all supports in a position well in advance of Putin’s Army crossing ‘the start line. The missiles the planes that heavy equipment could all be in situ many weeks ago.
I think some would agree that had this action been Implemented Putin would not have crossed ‘the start line’.
And still yet another aside: Having spent 23 years the Canadian Infantry regular force( Black Watch) we learned that in built-up areas (World War II) a ratio 10 one is a good number.. In open terrain generally 3 to 1 is sufficient to dominate encounter… Putin’s Army did not have, nor does he have now sufficient forces to mop up the Ukraine.. He may temporarily take a town or village or building.. In response the Ukraine Forces have adopted in part “a yapping dog strategy” — coming down from the hills (not many in Ukraine) And destroying The tanks and heavy equipment on the fringes of the herd—
These are setbacks for Putin individually as well as for Putin’s Army both on the field and home. It is reported over 7000 Russians have been killed to date. Putin’s Government permits only one legacy media to communicate with citizens. However as the facts leaks using social media watch for great disenchantment with Putin’s support base in Russia.
So that’s the plan–Change the name of the leader from Putin to Xi… Change is a sovereign state from Ukraine to Taiwan… The same statements Have been made; the same intentions have been telegraphed; the same bullying tactics by military equipment encroaching on air space and troops massing across the channel… Now is the time to provide Taiwan with the supports to counter the next move on the grand chessboard and the struggle between socialism and democracy currently under way in all six domains of war.
I believe it must be implemented today.
No wrong or right answers– Have by gone too far???